Ukraine faces a “challenging four months” of bloody fighting as Russia gears up for a summer offensive, with experts warning that Moscow is racing to seize ground before economic pressure forces it to the table. While US President Donald Trump has been praised for finally including Ukraine in the peace process, his decision to step back from direct negotiations risks emboldening the Kremlin and exposing Kyiv to intensified attacks.

Writing on social media, influential Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Vasiuk said: “I noticed that before calling Putin, Donald Trump first reached out to Volodymyr Zelensky. That’s a signal. A very clear one: no decisions about Ukraine – without Ukraine. Allies must have coordinated positions on all key issues.” He added: “Even in a complicated moment, the White House under Trump chooses to connect with Ukraine first – it becomes clear how meaningful that brief, yet substantial conversation between the presidents in the Vatican really was. Respect is where influence begins. And that means – we’re on the right path.”

Earlier this week, Trump held a two-hour call with Vladimir Putin, saying “progress has been made” toward peace. But the call yielded no breakthrough, with some in Europe claiming he had overestimated his personal leverage with the Russian leader.

Vice President JD Vance confirmed that Washington is abandoning Trump’s earlier policy of pushing a ceasefire through special envoy Steve Witkoff.

The new focus is on encouraging direct dialogue between both sides

Meanwhile, Ukraine is preparing to ask the EU to take stronger steps to isolate Moscow, including seizing Russian assets and imposing sanctions on foreign buyers of Russian oil.

Kyiv’s proposals include legislation to accelerate the seizure of assets from sanctioned individuals, with proceeds redirected to Ukraine. Those affected could seek compensation from Russia.

It also wants Brussels to broaden sanctions beyond EU borders by targeting foreign firms that use European technology to aid Moscow – and by introducing secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil.

Such a move, which could hit major importers like India and China, would mark a significant escalation – and one the EU has so far resisted.

Yet as the EU and Britain weigh tougher action, Trump is holding back.

“I think there’s a chance of getting something done. And if you do that, you can also make it much worse. But there could be a time when that’s going to happen,” he said.

Russia experts remain sceptical, however. “Zelensky’s goal is to keep Ukrainian independence, while Putin’s goal is to destroy it – and there is no room for compromise,” said Yuri Felshtinsky, co-author of Blowing up Russia with former FSB officer Alexander Litvinenko. “Ukraine has refused to capitulate because it knows that, if it does, it’s like committing suicide. So the pressure is on Russia.”

Dr Jack Whiting of the RUSI think tank said Russia’s position is becoming more urgent. “Russia cannot sustain operations indefinitely,” he said. “But for now, it believes its leverage over Ukraine will grow as Trump steps back from talks. The military is preparing to intensify operations.”

While Ukraine faces a shortage of troops, Russia still hasn’t achieved its long-standing goal of occupying Donetsk – the aim when it launched its invasion in 2014. Its summer offensive, Whiting said, will likely begin with a “soft launch”, ramping up steadily in size and scope.

“There are signs this has already started. Russia has probed Ukrainian defences in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, possibly to fix troops away from Donbas or to pre-empt cross-border raids. The main push remains against Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk.”

At the same time, Moscow is targeting Ukraine’s UAV capacity, launching deep strikes on cities and infrastructure, and seeking to divide the West in hopes of prompting US troop withdrawals from Europe.

“Russia has become more effective at targeting UAV pilots by speeding up information-sharing,” said Whiting.

“Away from the front lines, there will be a high tempo of deep strikes on infrastructure and urban centres. These are meant to unsettle civilians and send a message to Europe that nowhere is safe – to deter deployments.”

He warned that attacks could intensify around the NATO summit in The Hague.

“They may try to disrupt the summit, which is supposed to focus on resourcing the alliance, and instead shift the spotlight back onto Ukraine – where Washington and allied capitals are increasingly out of step,: he said.

“The picture is therefore of a challenging four months for the Ukrainian military. This will place a premium on the efficiency of Ukrainian drone and artillery operations, the ability of Ukrainian commanders to preserve their troops, and the continuity of supplies flowing from Ukraine’s international partners.”