The United States is evacuating non-essential embassy staff from Baghdad and the families of military personnel from several Gulf bases, in what officials describe as a precautionary measure – but one that raises fears of imminent conflict. It follows stark warnings from Tehran that any strike on its nuclear programme would trigger missile attacks on US bases across the Middle East.

Last night, the Royal Navy’s Maritime Trade Operations division issued its own alert, advising ships to transit the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Straits of Hormuz “with caution,” citing a risk of escalation that could directly endanger mariners. The US moves come just days before a crucial round of nuclear negotiations and shortly after President Donald Trump convened his national security team at Camp David to discuss Iran.

Though the White House insists diplomacy remains the goal, the tone is shifting.

“It could be a dangerous place,” Trump said. “We’ll see what happens.”

He reiterated his red line: “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. We won’t allow it.”

Trump’s 60-day deadline for Iran to reach a deal expired on Wednesday.

In April, he warned that if no agreement was struck by the deadline, “there will be bombing.”

The Islamic regime remained defiant, however.

“If a conflict is imposed on us… all US bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries,” warned Iran’s Defence Minister, Aziz Nasirzadeh, on Wednesday.

On Tuesday opposition group the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) revealed that Tehran has been secretly advancing a covert nuclear weapons programme codenamed the “Kavir Plan” – a successor to the exposed AMAD Plan – using satellite launch activity as cover.

Initiated by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in 2009, the scheme is run by the Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) and is allegedly based across militarised zones in Semnan province, including Ivanaki and Shahroud.

According to Soona Samsami, US representative of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the programme involves warhead integration, uranium enrichment to weapons-grade levels, and ballistic missile development. “Every major revelation has come after exposure by the NCRI or its internal network in Iran – only then does Tehran admit to it,” she said.

“Stalling has become Tehran’s most effective weapon. But the danger is, sooner or later, someone calls the bluff.”

The IAEA’s May report concluded Iran had failed to provide credible answers about traces of uranium found at undeclared sites.

A fresh resolution condemning Tehran is expected to be voted on by the IAEA board today, with Iran threatening retaliation if censured.

US officials say the Department of Defence has authorised the voluntary departure of military families from bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE.

“The safety and security of our service members and their families remains our highest priority,” said a Pentagon spokesperson.

A State Department official confirmed that a decision had been made “to reduce the footprint of our mission in Iraq,” based on the latest security assessment. The White House added that President Trump “is aware” of the measures but offered no further details.

Meanwhile, Western analysts are split on whether Israel might launch a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities without US backing.

Though recent reports suggest Washington is concerned by this possibility, most experts believe Israel would still require American-supplied MOABs and direct operational support, making unilateral action unlikely at this stage.

President Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, is now due to meet Iran’s foreign minister in Muscat on Sunday to discuss Tehran’s response to the latest US nuclear proposal, according to Axios.

As Iran prepares to submit its counter-proposal to the US, it remains unclear whether Sunday’s sixth round of nuclear talks in Oman will stabilise matters.

“If deadlock persists, then that’s the point where the US may begin considering green-lighting strike action,” said regional expert Megan Sutcliffe from Sibylline strategic risk group last week.

“If it appears that Iran has moved its stockpiles or enrichment capacity into undeclared locations, or further restricted IAEA access, then that may be the final tipping point.”

She warned that such disclosures would likely end any remaining US faith in diplomacy, especially under the Trump-led administration, which is positioning itself as far tougher than its predecessors.

“The clock is ticking,” Sutcliffe said.

“What happens in the next week or so could determine whether diplomacy survives or whether we see military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.”